An investment firm native to AI.

Argus reads continuously, debates every thesis, and routes every trade through human approval.

Manifesto Inquiries

Investment Committee · live

14 agents

06:42:11

FILINGS 10-Q surfaced. Capacity utilization at multi-year high; price-cost spread widening into Q4.

06:42:44

EARNINGS Q3 transcript mentions multi-year demand visibility for the third consecutive quarter.

06:43:09

NEWS Two upstream peers publicly slowed capex. Lead times extended six weeks.

06:43:31

CONVERGE 4 of 6 primary agents converge. Cascade stage early. Drafting plain-English thesis.

06:43:55

DEBATE Bear case generated. Adjudicating against base rate of similar setups.

06:44:18

GATE 8/8 risk gates passed. Awaiting human signoff.

Daily cadence · today

on schedule

05:30

Prediction-market refresh

06:00

Thesis maintainer

06:30

Disruption monitor

08:00

Morning IC

Ad-hoc

Investment Committee

24/7

Reactive worker

16:45

Daily close

24/7

Price monitor

08:00

Investment Committee

Sat

Weekly portfolio challenge

Convergence

A thesis requires independent agent agreement.

A signal becomes a thesis only when independent agents reach it from different directions.

convergence · ticker [REDACTED]

tracking

FILINGS

Capacity utilization +9pts YoY in latest 10-Q. Pricing language firmer than prior two prints.

EARNINGS

Q3 transcripts surface "multi-year demand visibility" for the third consecutive quarter.

SENTIMENT

Operator forums and X mentions track extending input lead times.

MACRO

Real-rate path stabilizing; cyclical buy-side flows returning to the cohort.

POLITICAL

Two relevant insider buys cluster within 9 trading days.

NEWS

Two upstream peers publicly slowed capex; trade-press confirms six-week lead-time extension.

CONVERGE

6 / 6 primary agents agree. Cascade stage early. Promote to thesis.

Adversarial debate

Every thesis must survive an opposing case.

Argued before recommendation. Attached to the trade. Replayable at exit.

debate · pre-recommendation

adjudicating

Bull case

Capacity utilization at multi-year high; pricing moving with it.
Single sourced on the input that matters; two-quarter lead-time advantage.
Q4 catalyst is a contract decision the market is dismissing.
Insider buys cluster within nine trading days; same pattern preceded the last catalyst.

Bear case

Lead-time advantage shortens fast if a peer commits capex.
Real rates re-accelerating compresses the multiple before catalyst.
If the contract slips a quarter, the entry thesis does not survive.
Two quarters of execution already implied in the multiple; no cushion for a slip.

Adjudication. Bear leg "contract slip invalidates" promoted to invalidation criterion. Sizing reduced one tier.

Risk stack

Eight gates between recommendation and broker.

All gates fail closed. A passing recommendation has cleared every layer.

pre-trade gates · live recommendation

7 of 8 cleared

Drawdown circuit breaker

−2.4% MTD vs −8% trigger

pass

Position & sector caps

3.6% single · 21% sector

pass

Factor exposure

tilt within band

pass

Correlation crowding

0.41 vs 0.70 ceiling

pass

Liquidity cap

3.1d to exit at 25% ADV

watch

Shorts / cost-to-borrow

borrow available · 38 bps

pass

Lone-wolf signal check

corroborated by 5 other agents

pass

Stop-loss / invalidation handler

stop set · invalidation criteria attached

pass

Position monitor

Positions are monitored against their original thesis.

The monitor watches each position against its own invalidation criteria, not the tape.

open positions · health vs thesis

12 open · 1 watch · 1 invalidated

Ticker

Strategy

Entry → Last

Catalyst

Status

[ABCD]Industrial inputs

Structural Mispricing

+11.4%

Earnings · 18d

on track

[EFGH]Specialty materials

Structural Mispricing

+4.2%

Contract · 31d

on track

[IJKL]Industrial automation

Structural Mispricing

−1.1%

Reg approval · 42d

watch

[MNOP]Software platform

Structural Mispricing

−6.8%

—

invalidated

[QRST]Energy infrastructure

Structural Mispricing

+7.0%

Capacity · 9d

on track

Decision ledger

Every investment decision is permanently logged.

Inputs, model version, reasoning, output. A short hash recovers any decision the firm has ever made.

ledger · last 24h · immutable

sealed

d4f1.a7

RECO New thesis from convergence. Sizing 1.2% NAV. 8/8 gates passed.

b2e9.31

REVISE Liquidity gate moved [IJKL] to watch. Sizing trimmed.

7c8a.14

EXIT [MNOP] hit invalidation criterion. Exited at stop.

9af2.05

DEBATE Bear case for [EFGH] adjudicated.

6c70.d3

RESIZE [ABCD] convergence strengthened to 6 of 6; sizing up one tier.

31bd.c9

APPROVE Human signoff. Order routed. Ledger sealed.

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